Serbia’s EU Dream is Conditional on Renewed Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue
The European Commission has told Serbia’s Boris Tadić that he must get back around the table with Pristina if his EU dreams are to become a reality. As approval for the EU plummets to a ten-year low at home, President Tadić has been handed a report that recommends candidacy, on condition that Serbia sorts out its Kosovo situation. It does not go as far as to call for Serbia to recognise the independence of Kosovo, but Belgrade must work constructively with Pristina, if Tadić is to follow his yellow brick road to Brussels.
With Belgrade politicians already posturing in the long run up to next year’s elections, this explosive topic that runs so deep is certain to increase temperatures in coming months and could put pressure on Tadić to make his position clear one way or the other. Something he often appears unwilling to do, say his critics.
The European Commission readiness report recommends that Serbia should be granted EU candidate status, provided that progress continues and that practical solutions can be found to its issues with Kosovo. The report should not be misread as the EU demanding that Serbia recognises an independent Kosovo. The EC wants Serbia to establish ‘normalised’ relations with Pristina, implement the agreements reached so far, and enable safe conditions for all people living in northern Kosovo.
“Serbia has built a positive track record on implementing the obligations imposed by the Stabilisation and Association Agreementand the Interim Agreement,’ the report says. “Whenever problems arose, Serbia took a constructive and transparent approach to resolve them promptly and effectively.
“Serbia is committed to its objective of membership of the European Union and since 2008 has increasingly focused its efforts on the EU-related reform agenda.” President Tadić is sure to like these words. His accusers, who say he is too focused on a future within the EU will see them as further ammunition. While the appeal of joining the EU might be clear to Tadić, it should not be seen as the only option for Serbia. This single-vision approach is something that riles many in Serbia, which is a dangerous spot to be in during an election year. As Dorothy learned and Boris could do well to remember, there is no place like home.
Public favour for the EU has dropped to around forty per cent in Serbia. Obviously this is a worrying for any government that has so publically pushed ahead with its European plans. Boris Tadić knows that he has a big job on his hands if he wants voters to return him to power in a coalition that does not see his influence dangerously diluted.
There are many reasons for this drop in support. The current financial crisis and bailout packages, problems at home and the worsening situation in Kosovo all played a part in that. Franco-German dominance in the EU is also unnerving for many in Serbia. Now they see their near neighbours being forced to cough up more than their fair share to carry the burden of poorly managed, over-spending nations like Greece and Portugal. Now even Spain and Italy are lining up with begging bowls.
Another issue is that many Serbians see Tadić as a weak, indecisive pawn to Merkel. His apparent fawning to Europe and the Serbian government’s indecisive position on the Kosovo issue has damaged Tadić at home and left him irrelevant abroad. Even Serbia’s erstwhile back-up boys in Moscow have shown themselves to be unimpressed by Belgrade in recent months. Putin’s forthcoming visit to Belgrade could prove interesting in many ways.
The major cloud that still hangs over Serbia’s ambitions to achieve full EU candidacy is Kosovo. Serbia refuses to recognise the declared independence of Kosovo, unlike most EU member states, and any dialogue has been focused on gaining cooperation on day to day issues and protecting Serb minorities there. Belgrade recently pulled out of talks with Pristina after violence and extreme intimidation erupted in northern Kosovo, to the chagrin of the EU and US. Now the European Commission has made renewed dialogue with Pristina a condition for any further EU progress.
What this fails to address is the question of any real incentive for Pristina to enter talks with a will to negotiate. Where is the gentle encouragement, the international pressure or threats of repercussions if they do not come to the table with a willing attitude for sorting the problem rather than just demanding everything and now? There does not appear to be any.
The likely outcome of any failure to satisfactorily end the Kosovo issue is that individual EU states will veto Serbia’s candidacy, even if it is given the green light by the EC. In coming months, we are likely to see Belgrade sweet-talking the more prickly EU member states, trying to get them on side before their opposition can block the unanimous backing required to progress further. Significantly, no set timeframe has been imposed, with the EC saying it will be observing closely, specifically in Kosovo, and will report back as soon as sufficient progress has been achieved.
The reports calls on all sides to defuse tensions in northern Kosovo and to allow free movement of people and goods to benefit everyone living there. It goes on to state that Serbia must fully respect the principles of inclusive regional cooperation and must cooperate actively with EULEX in order for it to exercise its functions in all parts of Kosovo, before further EU progress can be made.
Another question is how much Serbia will be willing to risk to balance favour with the EU and its own voters. Already they have stuck two fingers up to international opinion, and shown disrespect for democracy and the right of assembly by banning the Pride Parade(and any other demonstration that same weekend) as a threat to national security. Clearly they were unafraid of international condemnation and knew that any political fallout would be washed away with the next day’s rain.
In an all-too-familiar turn, media in Serbia have been typically scandalous and scare-mongering in their reporting of events related to the EU and the issue of candidacy as discussed in this report. While some jumped on continued Kosovo negotiations as an unfair barrier to membership, some even lead their coverage with a story about how much cash can be scooped up by Serbia in the EU’s pre-accession grants.
Already, Serbia has received more than €7.8 billion from the EU since 2001, the report confirms. This substantial financial leg-up has been in the form of grants (€2 billion) and loans (€5.8 billion) from the EU. The Commission says that Serbia benefited from EU CARDS assistance worth €1,045 million (2001-2006) and a further €974 million in Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) funds (2007-2011). This money has been granted to support reforms undertaken as part of the European integration process, specifically targeting projects that improve the rule of law, institution-building, sustainable economic and social development and support civil society. It should be noted that these are grants, not loans.
Further IPA funds will be be made available to Serbia to support improvements on specific infrastructure projects. The report also recognises that further investment is needed if Serbia is able to comply with regulations for the environment and climate change.
The EC report praises Serbia’s economic policies of the past decade, which have delivered average growth of nearly five per cent, reduced inflation and a general improvement in living standards. But it goes on to say that a number of structural weaknesses are hampering Serbia’s economic performance: the state retains too tight a grip on the economy and, despite some economic recovery, bureaucracy is too great, foreign investment is not sufficiently encouraged and unemployment remains too high. The employment market is also considered to be too rigid. Further efforts are needed to restructure the economy, improve the business environment and develop greater competition and opportunities for the private sector, the report says. A reduction in red tape for businesses is also called for, as well as improved conditions for foreign investment, if Serbia is to cope with competition from within the EU.
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